Keep a wary eye on Putin and Russia

Friday, March 16, 2007

Remember how our history books told us that the post-war Alliance that defeated Hitler lasted about the time it took to indict, convict and hang Nazi criminals at Nuremberg? Well, the post-Soviet era alliance that has existed between the U.S. and Russia won t win any awards for stamina, either.

Within the last six months, the Russian government has sold almost a billion dollars worth of air defense systems to the Iranian government. They have also provided advisors to train the Iranian military on how to track and kill American pilots. This way, Teheran will have the means to deter democracies fearful that an Islamic theocracy will have its own nuclear weapons, the same government whose president has vowed to wipe Israel off the map and views the rest of us as infidels.

Russia President Vladimir Putin has interesting empathy for the current Iranian government, given that our successful Cold War strategy that dismantled the Soviet Union was based, in part, on the containment of Communism.

Putin s strategy of arming a volatile Middle East seeking to develop an Islamic bomb is a profoundly dangerous game. In a nightmare scenario, if tactical nuclear weapons did go off in the region, it would fundamentally alter the international political landscape for generations to come. In addition to the millions who would die, the world s pursuit of oil would immediately shift away from a glowing Middle East. The indigenous petroleum reserves now powering a rebounding Russian economy would be worth far more to Russia.

In fact, a nuclear strike anywhere within the Middle East would make Russia a potent and lethal superpower literally overnight. It could name its own price for oil in a world suddenly without access to the Middle East reservoirs of precious crude. India and China would do whatever it takes to gain access to Russia s oil farms, bending their foreign policies to accommodate a potent Russia in an oil-rationed world.

By arming Iran with 21st century weapons, Putin is allowing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to labor under a false impression that he can ratchet up rhetoric and defy United Nations sanctions with impunity. In fact, an armed Iran actually lowers the tripwire for potential conflict, as its leaders will feel newly empowered with Russia as an ally and an arsenal they believe will keep them safe from retribution.

Ahmadinejad will also look to play a bigger role in projecting power and influence in our hemisphere. Recently, the Iranian president called for the enhancement of ties between Iran and Latin American states based on mutual respect and justice. A simple review of the provocative statements of Venezuelan President Hugo Rafael Ch vez leads one to conclude that these two anti-democratic leaders are considering how to forge a political alliance designed to confront the U.S. with a two front geopolitical battle.

But it is Putin who has the potential to be the dominant player in the 21st century. He has a potent weapons industry that far outclasses China. He has entrepreneurs who can challenge the best of Indian and Chinese economies. He has oil and lots of it.

As New Yorkers who are on the front lines of a battle being waged just over the horizon, it would be wise to keep a wary eye on the changing nature of the threat.

http://libn.com/article.htm?articleID=38195

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